Fears About Stagflation are Mounting in the U.S. It’s Every Central Banker’s Worst Nightmare (Macro News for April 27, 2024 – May 3, 2024)

Strong U.S. economic growth for the past few years was dampened by the first quarter 2024 results. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) dipped to an annualized rate of 1.6% relative to the robust 3.4% rate posted in the fourth quarter of 2023. While those results seem to align with the Federal Reserve's contractionary monetary policy, the inflation results do not. Inflation is once again moving higher and farther away from the Fed's 2% target rate.

Key Takeaways from the Latest Jobs Report (Macro News for March 16, 2024 – March 22, 2024)

U.S. unemployment increased to 3.9% in February 2024 according to the most recent labor market data. The increase was unexpected given that the consensus forecast was for the economy to add 200,000 new jobs in February and instead it added 275,000 new jobs. Economists anticipated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.7% but instead it ticked slightly higher by 0.2%.

Britain Falls Into Recession, With Worst GDP Performance in 2023 in Years (Macro News for February 17, 2024 – February 23, 2024)

Official U.K. numbers show that the nation is in a recession. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023 after falling by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. Recessions are typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The decline was widespread and affected the manufacturing, construction, and wholesaling sectors. Tourism partially offset some of the decline in addition to a slight increase in vehicle and machinery rentals.

The Worst of Inflation Could Be Behind Us. A Recession May Not Be (Macro News for December 30, 2023 – January 5, 2024)

Pundits and experts thought that high inflation would push the U.S. into recession in 2023. The Federal Reserve's aggressive contractionary monetary policy and belt tightening by many firms resulted in layoffs, but still did not result in the expected recession. Fed chair Jerome Powell remains noncommittal and stated in December 2023 that the economy appears strong, but an economic shock could result in a 2024 recession.